First wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Santiago Chile: Seroprevalence, asymptomatic infection and infection fatality rate

Abstract

Background The first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chile occurred during the cold season reaching a peak by the end of June 2020, with 80 % of the cases concentrated in its capital, Santiago. The main objective of this study was to estimate the attack rate during this first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in a large, densely populated city with more than seven million inhabitants. Since the number of confirmed cases provides biased information due to individuals' potential self-selection, mostly related to asymptomatic patients and testing access, we measured antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 to assess infection prevalence during the first wave in the city, as well as estimate asymptomatic cases, and infection fatality ratio. To our knowledge this is one of the few population-based cross-sectional serosurvey during the first wave in a highly affected emerging country. The challenges of pandemic response in urban settings in a capital city like Santiago, with heterogeneous subpopulations and high mobility through public transportation, highlight the necessity of more accurate information regarding the first waves of new emerging diseases.

Methods From April 24 to June 21, 2020, 1326 individuals were sampled from a long-standing panel of household representatives of Santiago. Immunochromatographic assays were used to detect IgM and IgG antibody isotypes.

Results Seroprevalence reached 6.79 % (95 %CI 5.58 %−8.26 %) in the first 107 days of the pandemic, without significant differences among sex and age groups; this figure indicates an attack rate 2.8 times higher than the one calculated with registered cases. It also changes the fatality rate estimates, from a 2.33 % case fatality rate reported by MOH to an estimated crude 1.00 % (CI95 % 0.97–1.03) infection fatality rate (adjusted for test performance 1.66 % [CI95 % 1.61–1.71]). Most seropositive were symptomatic (81,1 %).

Conclusions Despite the high number of cases registered, mortality rates, and the stress produced over the health system, the vast majority of the people remained susceptible to potential new epidemic waves. We contribute to the understanding of the initial spread of emerging epidemic threats. Consequently, our results provide better information to design early strategies that counterattack new health challenges in urban contexts.