Assessing the Hazard of Flooding from Breaching of the Alacranes Dam in Villa Clara, Cuba

Abstract

Flooding due to dam failures is a critical issue with significant impacts on human safety, infrastructure, and the environment. This study assessed the potential flood hazard that could be generated from breaching of the Alacranes dam in Villa Clara, Cuba. Thirteen reservoir breaching scenarios were simulated under several criteria for modeling the flood wave through the 2D Saint Venant equations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). A sensitivity analysis was performed on Manning’s roughness coefficient, demonstrating a low variability of the model outputs for these events. The results show that, for all modeled scenarios, the terrain topography of the coastal plain expands the flood wave, reaching a maximum width of up to 105,057 km. The most critical scenario included a 350 m breach in just 0.67 h. Flood, velocity, and hazard maps were generated, identifying populated areas potentially affected by the flooding events. The reported depths, velocities, and maximum flows could pose extreme danger to infrastructure and populated areas downstream. These types of studies are crucial for both risk assessment and emergency planning in the event of a potential dam breach. © 2025 by the authors.